A larger 2022-23 domestic corn harvest is now projected due to the increased acres (July vs March USDA), as U.S. producers chose to plant more than expected acres despite adverse weather outlook and higher fertilizer costs. Bloomberg writers M. Hirtzer and K. Chipman reported on July 1 that corn is again the top U.S. crop, causing corn prices to fall to their lowest since February. However, as expected, the trade-off is a cut-back to soybean acres (88.3 million acres; still 3rd-largest ever, if realized). It is important to note that with their USDA report, due to excessive rainfall/delayed planting, a larger portion of the corn and soybean acres are not planted; hence, the August reported acres will be adjusted in three states – Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
Grain markets remain volatile. Following the holiday price reductions, the July 12 WASDE report (acre adjustments bearish corn and soybeans) showed more corn and soybeans double-digit declines. The day after WASDE now showing price stabilization and a re-capture of some of those market declines. One positive from the corn moving off the $8/bushel highs was ethanol blend margins. Presently, some gas pumps are showing ethanol blends lower by nearly $1/gallon.
The July 12 WASDE highlights (comparing July 12 to Jun 10):
2022 corn crop season-average-price of $6.65 (down 10 cents); and
2022 soybean crop season-average-price of $14.40 (lowered 30 cents)
It is clearly a weather market! Some nice rainfall was reported in parts of Northwest Iowa during the days up to and following the 4th. Good/Excellent Crop Condition ratings as of July 10 show a 4 percent improvement to corn (81 percent) and 2 percent to soybeans (79 percent). However, the last 10 days of moisture showed little change to the drought monitor from Jun 28 where 16 of 16 Northwest Iowa counties remain in varying D0-D1-D2-D3 conditions.
Next week’s forecast is dominated by an expected move of the high-pressure dome to the north and east, which if verified will cause hotter/drier for the next several days. Drier conditions are having grain traders and funds’ managers watching closely for more long-term adverse growing conditions, including the critical pollination stage during the final two weeks of July and first week in August. Unlike a year ago when we had some subsoil moisture levels to compensate for lower in-season rainfall, heading into the 2022 pollination season will require timely rain. Most current projections show a 52 percent likelihood that the La Nina weather patterns will prevail into August 2022. This will be the third consecutive year for a La Nina, very rare, and 3 consecutive years not seen since 1950. Depending upon the strength and presence of the La Nina, crop yields in U.S. and South America historically are below trendline. It is important to note that each La Nina event will have different outcomes; therefore, the relative benefits /costs vary among agricultural producers.
Farmland Leasing Educational Opportunities
Crop year 2023 planning is underway. Management decision-making and projections for both revenues and expenses are facing uncertainties. Ag Decision Maker (https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/) will be the foundation when seeking ISU Extension and Outreach analytical help.

Again, this year ISU Extension and Outreach will be conducting in-person Farmland Leasing workshops across the state, including 13 Northwest Iowa counties, plus an online webinar on August 29. Meeting topics may vary slightly to the audience, but discussion topics will generally include:
The Iowa cash rent and land value surveys
Operating Margins – Revenues and Expenses
Determining a Fair Cash Rent
Lease Basics: Communication and Legal Review
Conservation and Corn Suitability Rating
Cybersecurity Tips
Registration is requested by calling your local county Extension office. If you have questions, please contact me, Gary Wright (712-223-1574, gdwright@iatate.edu).